A mere two months ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
