Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
